The ‘Great Filter’: I Wish Stephen Jay Gould Were Still Alive

So there’s a really interesting article in the MIT Technology Review by Nick Bostrom which basically argues that finding evidence of extraterrestrial life in our own solar system would be the worst thing that could ever happen to humanity.

Loosely the argument is this: we now know the galaxy is full of planets, so the fact that we’ve seen no evidence of extraterrestrial INTELLIGENT life means that there is likely some kind of “great filter” that precludes the advancement of civilization to the point when it can colonize or otherwise broadcast its existence to the rest of the galaxy. If the great filter is in the past from a human standpoint—i.e. if it’s very hard for life to evolve complexity or intelligence, or even for life to arise in the first place— that’s good news for us. We’ve already passed through the filter because we’re lucky and awesome. If it’s in our future—i.e. if there’s some technological discovery that tends to wipe out civilizations (don’t switch on the LHC!!!)— then we’re in deep trouble. We’re unlikely to be the first civilization to make it through the great filter.

So, says Bostrom, if we find life on Mars or Europa, that’s bad news. The more advanced the life is, the worse news it is. If life evolved independently somewhere else, it’s statistically much less likely that the filter is in the past. So the expected lifespan of human civilization gets a lot shorter.

Now some thoughts from me. This all ties in with a lot of what Stephen Jay Gould writes about in Wonderful Life. He doesn’t use the “great filter” terminology, but he argues pretty forcefully that evolution of life on Earth is wildly improbable. He doesn’t seem to think that the ORIGIN of life is that wacky though; it’s more that the transition from unicellular to multicellular organisms is very hard to achieve, and that the evolution of intelligence is in fact very unlikely.

So from Gould’s point of view (I would think), if we were to find some slime on Mars or even some jellyfish on Europa, that’s not quite as much of a disaster as Bostrom thinks it would be. Bostrom leans toward the great filter being the initial origin of life, where what Gould writes suggests that the filter is more likely one of the transitions along the very unlikely path from slime to us.

Another thing that interested me in Bostrom’s article was this passage:

“Now, it is possible to concoct scenarios in which the universe is swarming with advanced civilizations every one of which chooses to keep itself well hidden from our view. Maybe there is a secret society of advanced civilizations that know about us but have decided not to contact us until we’re mature enough to be admitted into their club. Perhaps they’re observing us as if we were animals in a zoo. I don’t see how we can conclusively rule out this possibility.”

This has always been something I’ve wondered about. To me, this seems almost as likely a solution to the Fermi paradox as the great filter dealy, but it’s true that there’s no real way to prove or disprove it for now. Something’s going on, in any case.

Blindness

Hey, I’m still alive. So, I see on Apple Trailers that they’re making a movie out of Blindness, the novel by Jose Saramago. I read the book when I was down in Costa Rica, pretty much purely by chance. I found it in a hostel’s book-swap shelf. But I thought it was incredible. Also very cinematic: I was picturing it as a movie as I was reading it.

The short version is that there’s a mysterious epidemic of blindness in a city. (Unclear exactly where it takes place, whether it’s Europe or Latin America or whatever.) The affected end up getting herded into a containment facility in an ex-psychiatric ward, where they are more or less abandoned by the authorities and terrible, terrible things happen.

For the character of the doctor’s wife—who pretends to be blind but can actually see—I had dream-cast Mary McDonnell (President Roslin) in my head. Looks like in this version it’s going to be Julianne Moore. Okay, but I like my idea better.

Also, I imagine that the movie is not going to be able to be quite as horrific and gruesome as the book is in parts, or it would end up rated NC-17. I don’t know what I think about this. The novel plays a neat narrative trick where the most horrible things that happen near the end you don’t actually see, the author only describes the sounds. So the reader becomes blind, too, for a while. I kind of hope the movie does this too; it’s very doable. Just fade to white and hear what happens.

In any case, this reminds me to go to the library and check out some more of Saramago’s books, which I had planned to do but forgotten about.

Thing I Learned Today: “Caroline, No”

Via Wikipedia: “Caroline, No” by the Beach Boys was originally written as “Carol, I Know,” but Brian Wilson misheard it and they ended up going with the present title because it’s cooler.

This is neat because the accidental mishearing of the lyrics ended up giving the song more poignancy; “Caroline, No” is a weirder construction, and seems to convey more emotion. But it also shows that lunatic music geniuses also have the universal experience of mishearing lyrics: “Here we are now, in containers,” “Scuse me, while I kiss this guy,” etc.

Maureen Dowd Doesn’t Get It

From Maureen Dowd’s column yesterday:

Obama, like the preternaturally gifted young heroes in mythical tales, is still learning to channel his force. He can ensorcell when he has to, and he has viral appeal. Who else could alchemize a nuanced 40-minute speech on race into must-see YouTube viewing for 20-year-olds?

Gah, say I. You don’t need the Force, you just need not to be full of shit. Obama’s race speech was not widely viewed on YouTube because of mysterious magic youthy sex appeal, it was widely viewed because Obama wasn’t bullshitting. He acknowledged complexities and refused to reduce everything to black and white, in a way that OTHER POLITICIANS AREN’T DOING. To reduce this to “alchemy” or “the Force” is idiotic, and diminishes both Obama and the 20-year-olds that Dowd is claiming to understand. The “YouTube generation” (or whatever) isn’t stupid, or, more accurately, is no more stupid than everyone else in the world.

I used to like Maureen Dowd, but perpetual cattiness is hard to take, paired with her weird propensity to constantly toss out as many cultural references as possible in every single column.

Of course, she’s still frickin’ George Orwell compared to WILLIAM KRISTOL. WILLIAM KRISTOL IS A COLUMNIST FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES. THE EARTH IS DYING. THE SUN IS A RED GIANT. End scene.

Literary Haikus: The Diary of Anne Frank (In Poor Taste)

The Diary of Anne Frank

Dear Kitty, I have
a crush on every boy.
Ack… (dead of typhus).

Literary Haikus: The Last Battle

The Last Battle, by C.S. Lewis

“We love Narnia!”
“Good, ’cause you’re dead and can’t leave.
P.S. I’m Jesus.”

Literary Haikus: No Country for Old Men

No Country For Old Men, by Cormac McCarthy

Hey, I found some cash.
Sure, I’ll bring you some water.
Aaah! Shit shit shit shit!

Titan Ocean! OMG!

I try to avoid writing posts that are just a link and commentary, but this is really cool. Analysis of Cassini data suggests that there might be a liquid water ocean under Titan’s mushy surface. If this is true, I think Titan just scooted in front of Europa as the best possible place to look for extraterrestrial life in our solar system. Titan is full of organic molecules, and the combination of organics and warm(ish) liquid water is pretty hopeful.

The downside is: how are we gonna build stuff there now? I’d always liked the idea of Titan as a place to colonize- Earthlike atmospheric pressure so we can build huge domes, availability of chemicals needed for agriculture, etc. But that’s no good if when we try to build a house on what we thought was the surface, it’ll sink through the crust with a loud SHLOOP and disappear into several miles of ocean. D’oh.

UPDATE: According to the NYTimes, the icy layer on top of the ocean is actually 50 or 60 miles thick, so maybe it’s not so much of an issue that things will shloop through it. Also, this says that Europa is still a better bet for life because the water has contact with volcanic rock, which would provide an energy source. What I don’t get is that if the water on Titan ISN’T heated by the core, where does the heat come from and why is it liquid…

Also…

I’m worried that people are trying to turn me into a commodity. I think it’s possible that nothing has actually happened since 1928, and everything since then has been someone’s dystopian warning. I think men should wear skirts and makeup like Eddie Izzard. I met someone with no soul on a ferry. He was an Italian doctor and a dog in a carrier wouldn’t stop barking because he knew there was something wrong. I felt sick for a day after seeing him.

Here’s an Important Question…

So here’s an important (but possibly dumb) question. How much radiation does melanin shield you from? What I’m getting at is this: let’s say a gamma ray burst hit the earth and wiped out a lot of our ozone layer. Would people with darker skin be better protected? Would humans all evolve to be black? Someone please answer this; I was wondering about it in the shower.

Also, let’s say we colonize (and maybe terraform) Mars. Since it has lower gravity and much more radiation, would Martians end up looking like Masai: really tall and really dark? Or is that a totally different kind of radiation than the kind melanin blocks?